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Today’s zeitgeist indicator:
Barclays promises “a lively discussion on the current macro outlook while we enjoy thoughtfully curated food and tequila”. Passing around the paddle will be Ajay Rajadhyaksha, the bank’s global research chair, and economists Christian Keller, Marc Giannoni and Jon Hill.
Tequila and economics make for an interesting mix. Over the past six months, Mexico has gone from having too much tequila to not enough. Trump’s on-off tariffs led to tequila stockpiling by hospitality companies, while brand owners have been nursing a hangover from a celebrity-endorsed hype bubble that burst in 2023. Over-speculation by smallholders in the boom times led the price of blue Weber agave, the slow-growing plant that’s tequila’s base ingredient, to crash more than 90 per cent over the past two years.
Nielsen US spirits data released today shows tequila volume growth continuing to deteriorate in April . . .
… with most of the big brands flatlining:
And of course the market anticipated none of this — as shown by the share prices of Pernod-Ricard (maker of Olmeca tequila), Brown-Forman (El Jimador), Campari (Espòlon) and Diageo (Casamigos, Don Julio):
Maybe the idea behind serving slammers while talking about global trade is to remind attendees that nobody knows anything. Or maybe it’s to help them forget. Either way, the opportunity for drunkenomics starts at 5:30pm EST; contact your Barclays representative for more information.
Further reading:
— The tequila party’s over for Mexico’s agave farmers (FT)
— Does alcohol + rap music = an investment case? (FTAV)