Political analysts said fence-sitters account for roughly 40 per cent of Johor’s electorate, with younger voters making up a particularly influential segment that helped shape the outcome of the last state election and the 2022 general election.
In the March 2022 state election, many ascribed BN’s landslide victory of securing 40 out of 56 state seats to a lower turnout amid the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, many fence-sitters chose not to vote, and turnout was around 50 per cent, one of the lowest recorded for Johor.
Meanwhile in the November 2022 general election, turnout was significantly higher, with an average of more than 70 per cent, and this led to PH winning 14 out of 26 federal parliamentary seats contested in Johor.
Independent pollster Merdeka Center said Johor’s most decisive voting bloc comprises about 1.13 million of the state’s 2.7 million voters – people aged between 21 and 39.
First-time voters who make up 6.1 per cent of the electorate were also described as potential “kingmakers”.
Francis Hutchinson, Principal Fellow and Coordinator of the Malaysia Studies Programme at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said these younger voters „don’t have particular loyalty to any party“ and are especially concerned about issues such as underemployment and the rising cost of living.
He added that two other groups of fence-sitters include supporters from the United Malaysia National Organisation (UMNO) who drifted from the party ahead of the 2018 general election following the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) corruption scandal, as well as traditional PH supporters who have become increasingly disillusioned with the Madani government over its current term.
„They may use the state election to send a message of discontent to PH leaders at the national level and warn them not to take their support for granted,“ he said.
The battle over who will govern Johor is mainly between the BN and PH coalitions, which are both contesting all 56 seats. The two are allies in Anwar’s federal unity government but rivals at the state level in Johor.
Other coalitions and parties vying to make a dent in the polls include PN, the relaunched Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) as well as the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA).