Gold steadied near $4,380 an ounce on Monday as falling oil prices and lower long-term Treasury yields offset pressure from expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again before year-end.
Spot gold traded around $4,379 in early Asian dealings after posting a modest weekly gain despite the Fed’s first rate increase in more than three years.
The metal has recovered from last week’s six-week low, but remains below the $4,400 area that repeatedly stalled advances.
The US 10-year Treasury yield eased towards 4.97%, while Brent crude fell towards $101 a barrel.
Fed risk remains gold’s biggest obstacle
The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% last week and made clear that inflation remains too high.
Its latest projections put the median year-end policy rate at 4.1%, effectively signalling at least one additional increase in 2026.
That creates an awkward backdrop for bullion because higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no income.
Konstantinos Chrysikos of Kudo.com told The Wall Street Journal that gold could remain constrained while investors expect further tightening.
He argued that firmer central-bank guidance could push yields higher again, while softer communication would give bullion more room to recover.
The counterweight is that long-term yields have retreated after the 10-year Treasury briefly broke above 5% last week. That has reduced some of the immediate pressure on gold.
Lower oil changes the inflation equation
Energy markets are also becoming more supportive.
Brent has fallen sharply from last week’s highs as Saudi exports recover and hopes grow that damaged export infrastructure can be restored.
Lower crude reduces the risk that another energy shock feeds through to headline inflation and forces the Fed into an even more aggressive tightening cycle.
Goldman Sachs analysts, in research carried by Bloomberg, expect Fed tightening to slow rather than derail gold’s longer-term advance.
The bank cut its year-end target to $4,650 but said stronger-than-expected central-bank purchases and persistent investor demand continue to offset part of the drag from higher rates.
Gold-backed ETFs have also recorded their longest run of inflows since October 2025.
Geopolitics remains another source of demand. Investors are watching Middle East tensions alongside Thursday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, where trade, AI and tariffs are expected to feature prominently.
Gold needs to clear $4,400 to strengthen the rebound
The technical picture has improved, but it is not decisively bullish.
Gold has moved back above its 100-day exponential moving average around $4,367, turning that area into the first near-term support.
The bigger test sits around $4,400-$4,406, where the recent highs and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement converge.
A sustained break above that zone would bring roughly $4,515 into focus.
Momentum remains mixed. The daily RSI is close to 49, suggesting neither buyers nor sellers have firm control, while MACD remains below zero.
If gold loses the 100-day average, the next meaningful support sits around $4,317. A deeper decline would expose approximately $4,229.
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